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DRAFT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RECOMMENDATION

Role of preventive diplomacy in tackling frozen conflicts around the world – missed opportunity or change for the future?

to the Council, Commission and the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy on the role of preventive diplomacy in tackling frozen conflicts around the world – missed opportunity or change for the future?

Committee on Foreign Affairs

(2023/2050(INI))

PE752.799

European Parliament recommendation of 17 January 2024 to the Council, Commission and the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy on the role of preventive diplomacy in tackling frozen conflicts around the world – missed opportunity or change for the future? (2023/2050(INI))

– having regard to the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,

AL. whereas the return of the US to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is important for global cooperation on transnational challenges, including preventive diplomacy efforts;

AM. whereas climate diplomacy frames climate change as an element of external action policy and highlights the need to integrate climate objectives and address climate risks at the highest diplomatic level and across all policy areas;

AM. whereas the growing Russia-China-Iran axis is instrumentalising international organisations, particularly the UN bodies, to erode international law and subjugate them to their interests, which increasingly contradicts the UN Charter and the rules-based global order;

AN. whereas cooperation with Member States, institutions, transatlantic and international partners, EU candidate countries and other countries through the exchange of tools, information and practices can play a key role in upgrading and improving the preventive diplomatic tools of the EU;

AN. whereas climate diplomacy frames climate change as an element of external action policy and highlights the need to integrate climate objectives and address climate risks at the highest diplomatic level and across all policy areas;

AO. whereas cooperation with Member States, institutions, transatlantic and international partners, EU candidate countries and other countries through the exchange of tools, information and practices can play a key role in upgrading and improving the preventive diplomatic tools of the EU;

AP. whereas the recent surge in tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region is an opportunity for the international community, including the EU, to take urgent preventive diplomatic action before the matter escalates further;

1. Recommends that the Council, the Commission and the VP / HR:

(w) ensure that this mechanism collaborates closely with the EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (INTCEN), the EEAS Crisis Response Centre and the Satellite Centre owing to the need for a pertinent flow of information in this regard; strengthen the EU INTCEN and the EEAS Crisis Response Centre by increasing their staff, financial resources and capabilities;

(x) establish close cooperation with relevant UN offices and agencies and other international actorsactors, most notably NATO, on the ground to pool information in the context of early warning efforts;

(y) constantly improve the security protocols of the services working on intelligence and/or with sensible information;

(al) enhance the EU’s ability to rigorously and continuously analyse and predict the political and security situation in crisis regions and adapt the EU’s response to shifting realities on the ground, including by ensuring there is a responsible focal point for conflict analysis in every EU delegation; ensure complementarity between efforts on the ground and diplomatic efforts between governments, representatives and other relevant actors at state level;

(am) assess what has been lacking in the EU’s preventive diplomacy efforts in Bosnia and Herzegovina in order to avert the tensions owing to inflammatory rhetoric and secessionist acts that undermine its European aspirations; urge Bosnia and Herzegovina to urgently find a common political agreement in order to comply with the Commission’s recommendation of 8 November 2023 and to be able to open accession negotiations before March 2024, also taking into account the volatile geopolitical situation and efforts to prevent external malign influences in the region, thus paving the way for permanent peace and stability in the country and region; welcome the European Council’s decision of 14-15 December 2023 to open accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina upon its compliance with the EU membership criteria; eagerly await eagerly the Commission’s report on progress and expects it by no later than March 2024;

(an) expand the mission EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina and strengthen its conflict prevention toolbox; note that it is the most successful EU peacekeeping and peacebuilding mission to date that has maintained stability in the region and contributed to a safe and secure environment in the country;

(ar) promote the EU’s participation in mediation, peacebuilding and conflict resolution such as in Colombia’s peace process, where the Union’s support focused on addressing the root causes of the conflict, including inequalities and human rights violations, through reconciliation efforts, economic territorial development through rural integration and multilevel political dialogue;

(as) prioritise quiet diplomacy as the tool of choice when undertaking prevention initiatives, overcome the early warning-early action gap, increase the effectiveness of cooperation with other international partners and improve intra-EU coordination, including on civil-military matters and increase local ownership of EU initiatives;(at) draw from the EU’s experience and non-EU countries’ best practices on cross-border cooperation as a highly useful instrument for sustainable peacebuilding and conflict resolution between neighbours, especially after the stabilisation of conflicts;initiatives;

(at) draw from the EU’s experience and non-EU countries’ best practices on cross-border cooperation as a highly useful instrument for sustainable peacebuilding and conflict resolution between neighbours, especially after the stabilisation of conflicts;

(au) develop an EU agenda/compact/guidelines for peace and diplomacy under the auspices of the VP / HR;

Strengthening partnerships and international coordination

(ay) strengthen partnerships and coordination on preventive diplomacy with international, regional and sub-regional actors, such as the UN, the OSCE and its Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, NATO, the African Union and its regional components, African regional organisations (such as ECOWAS), the Organization of American States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; notes that a closer partnership with the UN and its bodies, notably the Peacebuilding Commission, can lead to strengthened coordination in conflict prevention globally;

(az) ensure a coordinated, dynamic and multilateral approach to early warning, conflict prevention and mediation between the EU and other international organisations, such as the UN, the Peacebuilding Commission, the Council of Europe, OECD and the OSCE; ensure that EU delegations continuously liaise with UN field mechanisms such as the UN Resident Coordinator on the ground when pertinent;

(bf) pursue structured information exchanges, joint horizon scanning, strategic foresight and gender-responsive conflict analyses to ensure alignment between the EU and its partners within and outside of the EU; note that these actions could potentially bring the EU closer to becoming a leading actor in conflict prevention and resolution around the world;

(bg) recognise the role of relevant regional organisations, stakeholders in Member States, like-minded partners and other involved actors including civil society and other non-governmental actors as key players in effective prevention and mediation and resolution, including women and youth, and as peace actors by using their historical relationships and individuals of distinguished record to mitigate the possible crises;

(bg) acknowledge the importance of faith-based organisations as players in conflict resolution and mediation, which makes them partners for preventive diplomacy; condemn, in this context, attacks on faith-based actors, in particular the imprisonment of bishops and priests in Nicaragua, including Sakharov Prize finalist Monsignor Rolando Álvarez;

(bh) actively and inclusively engage young people in efforts and cooperation to prevent conflicts and maintain peace, and implement the EU Youth Action Plan in EU external action, which supports the implementation of the UN Youth, Peace and Security Agenda;

(bh) recognise the role of relevant regional organisations, stakeholders in Member States, like-minded partners and other involved actors including civil society and other non-governmental actors as key players in effective prevention and mediation and resolution, including women and youth, and as peace actors by using their historical relationships and individuals of distinguished record to mitigate the possible crises;

(bi) guarantee that EU delegations operate with a focal point on conflict prevention and peacebuilding; ensure that EU delegations, and particularly the abovementioned focal points, provide constant ground information to the EU conflict Early Warning System, the EU INTCEN and the EEAS Crisis Response Centre;

(bi) actively and inclusively engage young people in efforts and cooperation to prevent conflicts and maintain peace, and implement the EU Youth Action Plan in EU external action, which supports the implementation of the UN Youth, Peace and Security Agenda;

(bj) step up efforts in fighting disinformation, misinformation and foreign interference operations from malicious actors seeking to foment conflicts and polarise communities, which can lead to the destabilisation of entire regions; reinforce cooperation with like-minded partners, such as NATO, on countering disinformation, hybrid threats and foreign interference coming from non-EU countries, which represents an essential part of preventive diplomacy;

(bj) guarantee that EU delegations operate with a focal point on conflict prevention and peacebuilding; ensure that EU delegations, and particularly the abovementioned focal points, provide constant ground information to the EU conflict Early Warning System, the EU INTCEN and the EEAS Crisis Response Centre;

(bk) step up efforts in fighting disinformation, misinformation and foreign interference operations from malicious actors seeking to foment conflicts and polarise communities, which can lead to the destabilisation of entire regions; reinforce cooperation with like-minded partners, such as NATO, on countering disinformation, hybrid threats and foreign interference coming from non-EU countries, which represents an essential part of preventive diplomacy;

Preventive diplomacy and vulnerable or at-risk groups

(bk)(bl) recognise the specific vulnerabilities in conflict situations of at-risk groups including women, children, people with disabilities, people in jail – in particular political prisoners – human rights defenders, journalists and LGBTI people;

(bl)(bm) ensure that the EU’s preventive diplomatic efforts are sufficiently sensitised to these vulnerabilities and address the particular concerns and needs of at-risk groups;

(bm)(bn) recognise the specific vulnerabilities in conflict situations faced by non-governmental organisations on the ground, especially the ones working with at-risk populations and on sexual and reproductive rights;

Enhancing the EU's preventive diplomacy toolbox

(bn)(bo) enhance the EU’s capacity to act in situations where there are no like-minded partners in order to increase its standing and geopolitical leverage in conflict prevention and resolution, and strengthen the EU’s role as a more proactive and resilient actor in the international order;

(bo)(bp) strengthen the Peace, Stability and Conflict Prevention thematic programme of the NDICI – Global Europe instrument to enable the EU to better fund actions to promote peace, stability and conflict prevention; increase the funds available for conflict prevention under the NDICI – Global Europe thematic programme for the period until 2027, and increase the relevant administrative capacities (ISP.2) as this would reflect the profound changes to the security environment, in particular, since February 2022; swiftly implement the humanitarian-development-peace nexus (‘triple nexus’) approach in order to support conflict prevention efforts and strengthen the resilience of communities in areas affected by frozen conflicts that have varying levels of fragility, insecurity and poverty;

(bp)(bq) recall that conflict prevention cannot be instrumentalised for security and geopolitical purposes, thus risking counterproductive peace and security repercussions in the long-term;

(bq)(br) strengthen the EU’s ability to speak with one voice and to act as a truly global player in response to crises by implementing the necessary reforms to the decision-making processes;

(br)(bs) recognise the role of EU climate diplomacy in achieving the EU’s ambition for preventive diplomacy; invest more in supporting communities globally that are on the front lines of the climate emergency, and prepare for the now unavoidable increase in extreme weather events in order to mitigate the consequent increase in the preconditions for conflict and violence; address the role of climate-related resource scarcity and natural disaster response in exacerbating conflict, and provide inclusive solutions to climate and resource-related insecurity; use the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), and in particular the inclusion of ‘Peace’ as a theme for the first time this year, as an opportunity to lead the international community in integrating and aligning diplomacy for peace and the climate;

(bs)(bt) work towards ensuring that the EU takes up a prominent leadership position in peacekeeping operations, peacemaking and mediation, conflict prevention and the strengthening of international security around the world by fostering more resilient and enduring connections with other countries through its instruments and mechanisms, such as the Global Gateway;

(bt)(bu) recall that greater focus on protecting and preserving cultural heritage after conflicts and crises can help to protect identities, develop mutual understanding and create foundations for sustainable recovery, reconciliation and lasting peace in post-conflict environments; note that these practices can lay the foundations for successful preventive diplomacy actions;

(bu)(bv) engage with the Commission, the Council and Parliament with the aim of strengthening the financial and staff resources of the EEAS, both at its headquarters and EU delegations, in order to enable the service to reinforce its preventive diplomacy capabilities, among other things, and to be better prepared to tackle current and emerging global challenges and conflicts;

(bv)(bw) deploy the Jean Monnet Dialogue, the Inter-parliamentary Dialogue and the Parliamentary Dialogue Process, which can contribute to building democratic parliamentary culture and preventing conflict in the accession countries, especially in the de-escalation of Serbia-Kosovo relations;

(bw)(bx) insist on the budgetary increase for CFSP actions and other appropriate conflict and crisis response instruments in order to fully match the EU’s activities and capabilities with current challenges and conflicts worldwide;

(bx)(by) develop a comprehensive EU strategy for preventive diplomacy that includes long-term commitment actions and initiatives for non-EU countries in conflicts; foster the development of multi-tier governance structures for non-EU countries in conflict, as well as their integration within regional organisations and structures, contributing to the removal of triggers of violence or escalation of conflict and to their sustainable resolution; take stock, in this regard, of best practices worldwide and support domestic prevention actors and mechanisms by providing the necessary political, technical and financial support;

(by)(bz) strengthen and update the EU’s 2018 Integrated Approach to External Conflicts and Crises with special attention to conflict prevention and resolution that combines human rights promotion and protection, humanitarian, development, peacebuilding and security assistance, sanctions and diplomatic engagement, fully addressing all aspects of the conflict, including in partnership with local and international partners;

(bz)(ca) stress the need to establish a European Civil Peace Corps that brings together the expertise of institutional and non-institutional actors on conflict prevention, peaceful conflict resolution and reconciliation, with a view to making EU civilian crisis management more credible, coherent, effective, flexible and visible;

(ca)(cb) consider the use, notwithstanding the political dimension and solutions to conflicts, of litigation through an international court or tribunal, such as the International Criminal Court or the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, as a method of preventive diplomacy;

(cb)(cc) step up its public diplomacy and visibility efforts and communication campaigns in order to ensure that the EU is seen as a global peace actor and a key stakeholder in preventive diplomacy and peacebuilding, including the prevention of conflicts dimension of its missions and operations, and that its actions and success stories are not undermined by false narratives spread or claimed by other global actors present in conflict regions; allocate the necessary resources to the EEAS, and particularly the Strategic Communication and Foresight division of the EEAS and EU delegations to ensure the inclusivity and coherence of their cooperation activities with partner countries;

(cc)(cd) continue to professionalise preventive diplomacy by ensuring that it is part of the training programme of the permanent structure of Parliament’s pilot project on the creation of the European Diplomatic Academy;

(cd)(ce) build on existing well-functioning cooperation mechanisms in the EU, such as the Civil Protection Mechanism and CSDP missions and operations, in order to make use of the Member States’ expertise and avoid the duplication of efforts and resources; believe that the Member States should be more involved in the identification of prevention priorities and options for action, which should lead to improved sharing and coordination among them;

°

2. Instructs its President to forward this recommendation to the Council, the Commission and the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

EXPLANATORY STATEMENT

The global order is changing swiftly, emerging powers are confronting traditional players, new technologies are posing new challenges to global governance, power dynamics are more and more fragmented and the rules-based international order is more frequently being challenged. With Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, a war is directly threatening European and global security. We are also witnessing the highest level of geopolitical tensions and major power competition since the Cold War era.

This geopolitical instability, the increase of the number of conflicts and the strong link between external and internal security demand from the EU to step up its preventive diplomacy efforts and adapt its toolbox to the changing nature of conflicts. Thanks to new technology, conflicts are becoming more complex, deadly and harder to resolve. Thus, what we need is to prevent conflicts before they arise and focus on sustaining hard won peace gains in areas where conflict previously existed.

Based on EU’s missed opportunities and success stories, the Rapporteur presents a number of recommendations to the Council, the Commission, and the HRVP, which would amplify EU’s preventive diplomacy toolbox and make it the global actor in preventive diplomacy it can and should be.

The recommendations focus on six main areas where improvements in EU’s preventive diplomacy arsenal should be achieved:

1. Understanding the local and cultural context

2. EU Conflict Early Warning System

3. The role of EU Special Representatives and Envoys in preventive diplomacy, their accountability and overview of their results

4. Lessons learned from EU mediated conflict resolution and frozen conflicts

5. Strengthening partnerships and international coordination

6. From strategic autonomy to preventive diplomacy

Concerning the local and cultural context, the EU should develop preventive diplomacy tools and state-building assistance tailored to the cultural, historical and political context of the country. It should carefully select its envoys and representatives in conflict and post-conflict regions in order to avoid sparking controversy linked to appointments from Member States with historical past in these countries or regions.

When it comes to EU Conflict Early Warning System, the Rapporteur recommends to ensure that it is sufficiently proactive and based on continuous, forward-looking and robust analysis of risk factors. She also calls for regular assessment of the results of this system in order to make it more effective in the future.

EU special representatives and envoys should play a key role in EU’s preventive diplomacy efforts. While they are appointed to promote EU’s policies and interests and to act as mediators in troubled regions and countries, the effects of their work and the initiatives they undertake are not visible and not subject to parliamentary scrutiny. When it comes to their appointment, the Council and the EEAS should reflect on the possibility to appoint more recognizable politicians for these positions, in order to match the heavy-weight figures often appointed by other global players to similar troubled regions.

Looking at the lessons learned from EU mediated conflict resolution and frozen conflicts, in particular in Africa, the Western Balkans, Nagorno-Karabakh, Cyprus, Northern Ireland, Afghanistan and Ukraine, the Rapporteur recommends that future EU preventive diplomacy actions consider the missed opportunities and avoid similar situations in the future. In particular, the EU should assess and analyse carefully and continuously the risk factors and adapt its actions in conflict regions in order to prevent the creation of political vacuum that could be filled by actors that might not be acting in the best interest of the country or region in question, or the spread of false narratives.

Partnerships and international coordination are key to successful preventive diplomacy and the EU should continue strengthening its partnerships with international, regional and sub-regional actors, such as the UN, OSCE, the African Union and ASEAN, including what concerns early warning, conflict prevention and mediation. An integrated approach, combining humanitarian, development, peacebuilding, security assistance and diplomatic engagement, in coordination with partners, would be more comprehensive and deliver more favourable results in preventive diplomacy.

Last but not least, the EU should step up its strategic autonomy in order to be seen as a strong actor in preventive diplomacy. This can be achieved if the EU speaks with one voice and action on the ground is aligned between the EU and its Member States, moving away from individual interests. Building on past experience with joint EU mechanisms, like the EU civil protection mechanism or EU peace keeping missions, the EU can adopt similar approach when developing an integrated and pan-European approach to preventive diplomacy missions. It also remains important to communicate EU’s achievements and success stories better. While being the biggest development aid donor in the world, the output from this significant investment in the public diplomacy scene is insignificant and often even overridden by false narratives presented by other major powers present in developing countries.

All these recommendations should bring the EU one-step closer to becoming a leading actor in conflict prevention and resolution worldwide. By joining forces, the EU and its Member States would be able to overcome the pitfalls they have encountered in some of the previous EU mediated actions and would generate a more successful interventionist approach.

ANNEX: ENTITIES OR PERSONS FROM WHOM THE RAPPORTEUR HAS RECEIVED INPUT

Pursuant to Article 8 of Annex I to the Rules of Procedure, the rapporteur declares that she has received input from the following entities or persons in the preparation of the report, until the adoption thereof in committee:

Entity and/or person

Office of OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities

The Policy and Mediation Division of the DPPA of the United Nations

Integrated Approach for Security and Peace Directorate, EEAS

The list above is drawn up under the exclusive responsibility of the rapporteur.

INFORMATION ON ADOPTION IN COMMITTEE RESPONSIBLE

Date adopted

28.11.2023

Result of final vote

+:

–:

0:

54

5

0

Members present for the final vote

Alexander Alexandrov Yordanov, Maria Arena, Traian Băsescu, Fabio Massimo Castaldo, Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, Anna Fotyga, Michael Gahler, Kinga Gál, Sunčana Glavak, Raphaël Glucksmann, Klemen Grošelj, Bernard Guetta, Márton Gyöngyösi, Sandra Kalniete, Andrius Kubilius, Georgios Kyrtsos, Jean-Lin Lacapelle, David Lega, Pedro Marques, David McAllister, Sven Mikser, Francisco José Millán Mon, Matjaž Nemec, Demetris Papadakis, Kostas Papadakis, Thijs Reuten, Nacho Sánchez Amor, Isabel Santos, Mounir Satouri, Andreas Schieder, Jordi Solé, Tineke Strik, Dominik Tarczyński, Hermann Tertsch, Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, Thomas Waitz, Witold Jan Waszczykowski, Charlie Weimers, Isabel Wiseler-Lima, Salima Yenbou, Elena Yoncheva, Tomáš Zdechovský, Bernhard Zimniok, Željana Zovko

Substitutes present for the final vote

Vladimír Bilčík, Jakop G. Dalunde, Loucas Fourlas, Christophe Grudler, Anja Haga, Evin Incir, Andrey Kovatchev, Alessandra Moretti, María Soraya Rodríguez Ramos, Bert-Jan Ruissen, Mick Wallace, Milan Zver

Substitutes under Rule 209(7) present for the final vote

Clare Daly, Mónica Silvana González, Miguel Urbán Crespo

FINAL VOTE BY ROLL CALL IN COMMITTEE RESPONSIBLE

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