On European Central Bank – annual report 2023
ECON-PR-752845
Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs · Rapporteur: Johan Van Overtveldt
Written by a language model from the full text only; every figure comes from the text. The paragraph links open the paragraph a statement rests on — check the text itself before relying on it.
A draft report on the European Central Bank's annual report 2023. It welcomes the ECB's role in safeguarding euro stability and its independence, and says price stability is a prerequisite for the ECB to support the EU's general economic policies.¶¶ It is deeply worried about persistently high inflation, especially core inflation, and its impact on competitiveness, investment, job creation and consumers' purchasing power.¶¶ It questions the ECB's 2% inflation target and the meaning of 'medium term', and invites the ECB to review its models and consider a more qualitative approach to price stability.¶¶ It raises concerns about high debt and government deficits, TARGET2 divergences, cyberattacks, cryptocurrencies, shadow banking and the digital euro, and calls on the ECB to keep publishing written feedback on Parliament's resolutions.¶¶¶
Committee position. The rapporteur proposes that Parliament welcome the ECB's role in safeguarding euro stability and its independence, express deep worry about high inflation and debt, question the 2% inflation target and the meaning of 'medium term', and invite the ECB to review its models and consider a more qualitative approach to price stability.¶¶¶
Key points
- Welcomes the ECB's role in safeguarding euro stability and underlines that its statutory independence is a prerequisite for fulfilling its price stability mandate.¶
- States that price stability is a prerequisite for the ECB to support the EU's general economic policies, such as the green and digital transitions, and for attracting long-term investment.¶
- Fears the ECB risks losing legitimacy if it does not properly deliver on its price stability mandate.¶
- Is deeply worried about persistently high inflation, especially core inflation, and its impact on competitiveness, investment, job creation and consumers' purchasing power.¶
- Expresses concern about high debt and government deficits in member states, notes the situation is worse in the euro area, and looks forward to the Commission's proposals on revising EU economic governance rules.¶
- Regrets Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine and agrees with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on the risk of negative supply-side shocks.¶
- Highlights that high inflation, the war in Ukraine, high debt, the European Green Deal, global trade fragmentation and a possible subsidy race threaten the competitiveness of the European economy and the international role of the euro.¶
- Echoes President Lagarde's warning that fiscal support should be targeted and limited and should not hinder monetary policy, and points out that governments and the Commission can also focus on growth-enhancing reforms.¶
- Welcomes the ECB's support for completing the banking union and the capital markets union, which would spread risks and enhance financial stability of the monetary union.¶
- Notes headline inflation fell from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023 but remains above the 2% target, is concerned about second-round effects, and encourages the ECB to report on the inflationary effect of the green transition.¶¶
- Points out inflation began rising above target in 2021, deplores that the ECB only started tackling it in June 2022 while other central banks acted more promptly, and invites the ECB to fundamentally review its models.¶¶
- Questions the scientific evidence for the 2% target and the meaning of 'medium term', invites the ECB to consider a more qualitative approach to price stability, and supports scaling back asset purchases while stressing collateral quality.¶¶
Who is affected
- The European Central Bank, which is asked to review its models, report on the green transition's inflationary effect, and maintain accountability.¶¶¶
- Euro area member states, whose high debt and deficits are flagged as a concern.¶
- The digital euro project, which must respect banking competition, cash use and privacy.¶
- The shadow banking sector and crypto industry, for which adequate regulation and monitoring are stressed.¶¶
Figures and deadlines
- 3.5% in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023: expected slowdown in euro area economic growth.¶
- 0.6% in 2023: euro area growth according to a Eurostat flash estimate.
- 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025: expected average headline inflation.¶
- 5.5% in June 2023: core inflation increase.
- 3.1% of GDP in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024: projected government deficits.¶
- 95.0% to 91.2% in the euro area and 87.4% to 83.7% in the EU-27: government debt to GDP ratio decrease in 2022 and 2023.
- 2%: the ECB's inflation target over the medium term.¶
- 8.4% in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023: fall in headline inflation.¶
Legal basis: Articles 123, 127(1) and (2), 130 and 284(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.¶